W2W4: Two-on-Five

Game 5: What to Watch For

— Can Lebron James and Dwyane Wade combine for some absurd number of points? 

Because other than one Mario Chalmers outbreak, the Heat have been very reliant on the two.

Obviously Chris Bosh was contributing a steady points total before his injury, but with the lone exception of Chalmers, no one has stepped up outside of the Big 3 Big 2. Heck, no one is even close to making double digits. The Pacers have to keep LeBron and Wade from scoring 70+ points if the want to win. When Indiana keeps one of those two from going bananas, they will win.

I hate to keep harping back to the point of James/Wade, but I can't think of any team that is so reliant on just two players. Sure, many teams have a trio or duo they expect much of their scoring from, but Miami simply has constructed a team that functions that way. You don't expect Chalmers, Mike Miller, or Udonis Haslem to factor into the game. When two players score 54% of your points and you only have one other player averaging double digit scoring or anything close, you simplify the game plan. It hurts even more when those two players aren't much of post presence. Bring us to our next point.

— Roy Hibbert 
More importantly, how many fouls he gets. The stat ESPN showed today was when Hibbert plays gets into foul trouble, the Pacers haven't won any games in this series. 

Pacers With Roy Hibbert On/Off Court
Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. Heat

Roy Hibbert	On	Off
+/-	+30	-17
Pts per 48 mins	93.8	70.8
Reb diff	+26	-7

Simply put, no one on the Heat's roster can contain Hibbert. However, the refs, or at least fouls can.

When Roy Hibbert is doing this, the Pacers are losing.

— Danny Granger, or Granny Danger?

Granger and the Pacers have stood up to the Miami Heat all series, but Granger has managed to pick up  three technical fouls in as manny games. He's trying to get in James and Wade's head, but the results are mixed. He needs to continue to be in their faces, but he can't pick up the technicals. He just needs to let them know he isn't scared, but he doesn't need to jaw or shove and give away a free throw. 

It may be beating a dead horse, but this game, like the last three, comes down to James and Wade. 

If the put up ridiculous numbers, game on. If one of them can't do that. The Pacers will take Game 5.

Why the Indiana Pacers are going to the Eastern Conference Finals

And this is why I don't think the Heat can win the series now, and it is Indiana's to lose. Without Chris Bosh to neutralize or handle the bigs of Indiana, Miami will need outlandish numbers by Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to keep up. When Roy Hibbert is on the court, the Miami Heat's +/- rating is -15.2. Hibbert leads the charge for the Pacers, and the Heat's only real chance is to take advantage of Indiana's defense when he's off the court. (Which they did for the most part, with a +/- of +16.7)



The Heat have two of the best players in the NBA, so as long as James and Wade put up 20+, things we'll be fine.

Dwyane Wade

Oh. That could be a problem.

Despite Mario Chalmers going off for 25 points, a team high. (Lebron had 22, the first time a non-Big Three lead the team in a playoff game.)  What happened? Considering Wade has only had one other playoff game where he has had less that 10 points (Against the New Orleans Hornets in 2004, his rookie year.) 

Something is obviously wrong. But if he is in the game, it can't be an excuse. After the game when he was asked about the injury, Wade was honest, but wasn't giving himself a pass either. "At this point in the season, no one is 100%," Wade said.  So then when he had a very 'heated'  confrontation with coach Erik Spoelstra, you have to wonder about where he is mentally right now. From his flagrant foul of Darren Collison, his remarks about the Pacers' 'over celebrating',  the now very visible fighting on the bench, and most likely leading to a now canceled practice, you have to wonder what's going on inside. This isn't the Wade I remember in 2006 when the won the title. For all the talk about Lebron and how he handles pressure, I'm more worried about Wade's mindset. James is still producing, isn't picking up dumb flagrant fouls, and not saying foolish things to the media.

The question isn't can their leader get it together and do better than five points. He will. He is Dwyane Wade. He averages 25.4 points a game in the playoffs.

The question is the same as it was since Bosh went down in Game 1: Can the Heat beat the Pacers with only two productive players. If Wade isn't having arguably the worst game of his entire career, Chalmers probably won't be seeing the ball as much. Or, maybe Chalmers can continue to score even if Wade is taking more shots. That's doubtful. Chalmers went 2-13 in the first two games. Unless Miami makes a concerted effort to get him the ball, (They did in Game Two... he went 2-10)

But until that happens, and with Bosh gone for at least this series, the Heat have two options, and the Pacers' defense knows that. And they have little reason to worry about the rest of the team. Including Chalmers impressive performace in Game 3,  the rest of the Miami team is only 39-109 from the field, a 37.8%.

Unless something happens, Miami can expect to see more of this when anyone but James and Wade are shooting.

Keeping Pace

For whatever reason, despite earning a 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, people were counting out the Indiana Pacers before their series against the number 2 seeded Miami Heat. ESPN's SportsNation went as far as saying this after the Pacers trailed by an insurmountable 5 point lead at halftime.

Challenge Accepted.

The Heat may be the best three man, the best two man, the better team, but the Pacers have proved through two games, they aren't going to lose by 29 points, like some other team in the playoffs.

The Pacers have a veteran leader in David West, who instead of enjoying the win, told the team to get off the Heat's lawn and act like you've been here before. West may be the cranky old man on the team, but he made sure Dwyane Wade's complaints about the Pacers celebrating seem rather petty by getting his guys off the court quickly.

Indiana proved a few things with their win in Miami.

1) The Heat need Chris Bosh. 

The Pacers were able to contain Miami as they had the only had to worry about LeBron James and Wade. LeBron can score in the post, but when it is him versus three Indiana players, he can't score at will.  More importantly, this allowed the Pacers to control the pace. Miami only had 6 points on the fast break (Indiana had 13), one of the best part's of their offense. Indiana could drop back and slow the charge for much of the game. James and Wade still got their points, but they had to earn them. The Pacers also owned a +10 rebound margin. and in a close game, that is obviously going to make a difference.

Without a real presence in the front court, West, Roy Hibbert, and Danny Granger combined for 35 points. Not a massive amount, but without Bosh, the Pacers went at their own pace down low and all of their starters were in the positive as far as +/- in concerned, where as Miami's starters were in the negative, even Wade and James, who combined for 52 of the Heat's 75 points. This means it wasn't as if Miami's second unit was allowing the Indiana to stay in the game, it mean's that Miami will have to step up their defense if they want to beat the Pacers. Bosh helps spread out Indiana, and makes their defense pick a poison.

Without him, James and Wade were forced to try to score all of Miami's points. Impressive, because they kept pace and almost did, but Indiana can most likely outscore just two players. The Heat can't win this series with only two players in double figures.

2) Consider this continuation from point one, but without Bosh, Indiana can force someone other than James or Wade to be the trigger in the late game.

Wade "choked" , but part of that came from the fact he didn't get a good look thanks to the Pacers not having to worry about anyone other than James doing anything (West had Lebron covered). That left James Jones, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers, a group that went 4-16 from from inside the arc (Battier was 1-1 from beyond it), not a group you want to count on. Wade may have got by his defender, but he was still getting pressured and didn't have an easy shot. The next chance they got Chalmers took the three, and missed. Chalmers can make that shot, but the Pacers seem fine with leaving the game in anyone but the Big 3 Big 2's hands.

The Heat options are very limited in the end game.

3) The game was ugly, and I'd be wrong to say Indiana "outperformed" Miami. but the Pacers did go on the road and out work the Heat in several important categories.

                               PACERS            HEAT

FGM-FGA	28-74 (.378)	27-78 (.346)
3PM-3PA	3-15 (.200)	1-16 (.063)
FTM-FTA	19-27 (.704)	20-29 (.690)

Rebounds (Off-Total)   15-50                   14-40

Indiana has to know that they need to do better if they want to win the series, but to be able to not be as bad as beat Miami bodes well for them when they return home. For the most part, you assume the Pacers stats will improve, but the question is how much? The younger players missed free throws, and generally have looked like young guys in a playoff game. When they head home on Thursday, conventional wisdom says they will.  However, James and Wade are probably going to summon Eff' You Mode. Coach Frank Vogel and the Pacers can't assume they will win at home just because they are the better team*. The Pacers game plan should be to make sure they make sure that no one else on the team makes it to double digits. James and are Wade the best two players on the court by far, but you'll take West, Hibbert, Granger, Hill, and George next if you were picking players in a pick-up game. Maybe a few Heat players are in the mix for the sixth and seventh pick, but other than the Big 2, Miami is behind in all the other match-ups. That's a testament to how good the two are. James and Wade are going to make Indiana work to keep up, but it is very hard to win with just two.

The Pacers and this series still have a long way to go, but Indiana proved they are no JV squad (and West is their senior captain) by taking one on the road.

*When I say team, I mean group of players. Again, see my point about if you were picking players for a pick-up game. James and Wade may be a-frickin'mazing, but it is hard to win a game with only two players.

Earning A Game Ball

Think Bill Belichick has no sense of humor?



Larry Izzo got a game ball for his discretion doing a #2 on the sidelines. I'm quite proud of many things I have done in life, and occasionally the stealthiness in which they were done, but I never was given a game ball for that.

Bill Belichick is often considered to be an old curmudgeon who derives no pleasure of life, but apparently he can recognize greatness (and humor) both on and off the field.

10 Minutes of Extra Time? And Goal of the Year?

Is it strange the first thing I noticed in this video was there is 10 minutes of stoppage time? How does that even happen?


Also, Papiss Cisse also scored one of the best goals you will see all year.

(Just watched the full highlights, Cheick Tioté caught an elbow from John Obi Mikel, clean challenge, but took a nasty shot to the head, had to be taken off. Non-malicious challenge, but he took blow to his head. That's how you get 10 minutes of extra time.)

Are You Not Entertained?

"Are you not entertained?"
"Is this not why you are here?"

I'm not trying to make any humor here, but that's what went through my mind when I read the news that Junior Seau had killed himself today. He didn't die on the field, so it isn't as if we are watching athletes fight to the death for our amusement, but we do enjoy watching our violent sports. His death looks eerily similar to Chicago's Dave Duerson's death. Both men choose to take their own lives, but I think any rational person begins to worry about the serious links to head trauma. Many athletes will still choose to play violent sports because we love to play them, and know most likely they won't have the same issues down the road. But can you blame a parent who chooses to keep their child out of football or hockey because they worry what repeated brain injury might do? I remember watching a safety video in football and not leading with your head to avoid snapping your own neck. I honestly wouldn't have question someone quitting football then and asking if it was worth it. It is the player's choice when they go on the field, and they know injuries can happen.

They accept that. We as fans accept that.

Did playing football lead to this?  Do we know yet if Seau is like others who the repeated hits caused this to spiral into depression? No. I have to imagine losing a lot of your support network and walking away from something that you have done your whole life hard. But you begin to wonder how all these repeated impacts are affecting players. Maybe we are jumping the gun on what brought Seau to that point, but we do know other athletes have went down a similar road and part of the problem was the repeated brain trauma. Will I still watch these violent sports? Of course. But with stories like this coming up again and again in our more violent sports, you begin to wonder more and more if they players we love have a similar path in store. I know some will cry that we are getting soft, and that two hand touch is next. But I cringe more often now when I see a big hit. I may let out a wow, but when the guy can't get back up, you start to wonder what that hit means for him long term. You wonder about all the concussions that Austin Collie has racked up. Do we take this violence away from the sports? I don't know, but maybe we should realize just what violent the speed of the game and the size of the bodies has created.  The players choose to put their bodies on the line for our entertainment, and we watched as they limp, crawl, and are carried off the field.

Are you not entertained?