Why the Indiana Pacers are going to the Eastern Conference Finals

And this is why I don't think the Heat can win the series now, and it is Indiana's to lose. Without Chris Bosh to neutralize or handle the bigs of Indiana, Miami will need outlandish numbers by Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to keep up. When Roy Hibbert is on the court, the Miami Heat's +/- rating is -15.2. Hibbert leads the charge for the Pacers, and the Heat's only real chance is to take advantage of Indiana's defense when he's off the court. (Which they did for the most part, with a +/- of +16.7)



The Heat have two of the best players in the NBA, so as long as James and Wade put up 20+, things we'll be fine.

Dwyane Wade

Oh. That could be a problem.

Despite Mario Chalmers going off for 25 points, a team high. (Lebron had 22, the first time a non-Big Three lead the team in a playoff game.)  What happened? Considering Wade has only had one other playoff game where he has had less that 10 points (Against the New Orleans Hornets in 2004, his rookie year.) 

Something is obviously wrong. But if he is in the game, it can't be an excuse. After the game when he was asked about the injury, Wade was honest, but wasn't giving himself a pass either. "At this point in the season, no one is 100%," Wade said.  So then when he had a very 'heated'  confrontation with coach Erik Spoelstra, you have to wonder about where he is mentally right now. From his flagrant foul of Darren Collison, his remarks about the Pacers' 'over celebrating',  the now very visible fighting on the bench, and most likely leading to a now canceled practice, you have to wonder what's going on inside. This isn't the Wade I remember in 2006 when the won the title. For all the talk about Lebron and how he handles pressure, I'm more worried about Wade's mindset. James is still producing, isn't picking up dumb flagrant fouls, and not saying foolish things to the media.

The question isn't can their leader get it together and do better than five points. He will. He is Dwyane Wade. He averages 25.4 points a game in the playoffs.

The question is the same as it was since Bosh went down in Game 1: Can the Heat beat the Pacers with only two productive players. If Wade isn't having arguably the worst game of his entire career, Chalmers probably won't be seeing the ball as much. Or, maybe Chalmers can continue to score even if Wade is taking more shots. That's doubtful. Chalmers went 2-13 in the first two games. Unless Miami makes a concerted effort to get him the ball, (They did in Game Two... he went 2-10)

But until that happens, and with Bosh gone for at least this series, the Heat have two options, and the Pacers' defense knows that. And they have little reason to worry about the rest of the team. Including Chalmers impressive performace in Game 3,  the rest of the Miami team is only 39-109 from the field, a 37.8%.

Unless something happens, Miami can expect to see more of this when anyone but James and Wade are shooting.