Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Keeping Pace

For whatever reason, despite earning a 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, people were counting out the Indiana Pacers before their series against the number 2 seeded Miami Heat. ESPN's SportsNation went as far as saying this after the Pacers trailed by an insurmountable 5 point lead at halftime.

Challenge Accepted.

The Heat may be the best three man, the best two man, the better team, but the Pacers have proved through two games, they aren't going to lose by 29 points, like some other team in the playoffs.
The Pacers have a veteran leader in David West, who instead of enjoying the win, told the team to get off the Heat's lawn and act like you've been here before. West may be the cranky old man on the team, but he made sure Dwyane Wade's complaints about the Pacers celebrating seem rather petty by getting his guys off the court quickly.


Indiana proved a few things with their win in Miami.


1) The Heat need Chris Bosh

The Pacers were able to contain Miami as they had the only had to worry about LeBron James and Wade. LeBron can score in the post, but when it is him versus three Indiana players, he can't score at will.  More importantly, this allowed the Pacers to control the pace. Miami only had 6 points on the fast break (Indiana had 13), one of the best part's of their offense. Indiana could drop back and slow the charge for much of the game. James and Wade still got their points, but they had to earn them. The Pacers also owned a +10 rebound margin. and in a close game, that is obviously going to make a difference.

Without a real presence in the front court, West, Roy Hibbert, and Danny Granger combined for 35 points. Not a massive amount, but without Bosh, the Pacers went at their own pace down low and all of their starters were in the positive as far as +/- in concerned, where as Miami's starters were in the negative, even Wade and James, who combined for 52 of the Heat's 75 points. This means it wasn't as if Miami's second unit was allowing the Indiana to stay in the game, it mean's that Miami will have to step up their defense if they want to beat the Pacers. Bosh helps spread out Indiana, and makes their defense pick a poison.

Without him, James and Wade were forced to try to score all of Miami's points. Impressive, because they kept pace and almost did, but Indiana can most likely outscore just two players. The Heat can't win this series with only two players in double figures.

2) Consider this continuation from point one, but without Bosh, Indiana can force someone other than James or Wade to be the trigger in the late game.

Wade "choked" , but part of that came from the fact he didn't get a good look thanks to the Pacers not having to worry about anyone other than James doing anything (West had Lebron covered). That left James Jones, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers, a group that went 4-16 from from inside the arc (Battier was 1-1 from beyond it), not a group you want to count on. Wade may have got by his defender, but he was still getting pressured and didn't have an easy shot. The next chance they got Chalmers took the three, and missed. Chalmers can make that shot, but the Pacers seem fine with leaving the game in anyone but the Big 3 Big 2's hands.
The Heat options are very limited in the end game.

3) The game was ugly, and I'd be wrong to say Indiana "outperformed" Miami. but the Pacers did go on the road and out work the Heat in several important categories.

                               PACERS            HEAT
FGM-FGA28-74 (.378)27-78 (.346)
3PM-3PA3-15 (.200)1-16 (.063)
FTM-FTA   19-27 (.704)20-29 (.690)
Rebounds (Off-Total)   15-50                   14-40


Indiana has to know that they need to do better if they want to win the series, but to be able to not be as bad as beat Miami bodes well for them when they return home. For the most part, you assume the Pacers stats will improve, but the question is how much? The younger players missed free throws, and generally have looked like young guys in a playoff game. When they head home on Thursday, conventional wisdom says they will.  However, James and Wade are probably going to summon Eff' You Mode. Coach Frank Vogel and the Pacers can't assume they will win at home just because they are the better team*. The Pacers game plan should be to make sure they make sure that no one else on the team makes it to double digits. James and are Wade the best two players on the court by far, but you'll take West, Hibbert, Granger, Hill, and George next if you were picking players in a pick-up game. Maybe a few Heat players are in the mix for the sixth and seventh pick, but other than the Big 2, Miami is behind in all the other match-ups. That's a testament to how good the two are. James and Wade are going to make Indiana work to keep up, but it is very hard to win with just two.


The Pacers and this series still have a long way to go, but Indiana proved they are no JV squad (and West is their senior captain) by taking one on the road.


*When I say team, I mean group of players. Again, see my point about if you were picking players for a pick-up game. James and Wade may be a-frickin'mazing, but it is hard to win a game with only two players.


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